2010 Predictions
Looking forward to the 2010 placement
season - Diane's predictions.
In order to understand my predictions you must
first understand the market conditions of 2009. 2009 was
not a banner year for international school staffing. Between
expatriates being recalled home to save money, new expat
contracts being offered without lucrative school fee allowances
to save money, and rich locals finding out they are not quite
so rich anymore, the raging fire that drove the growth of the
international schools market looked more like a pit of
smouldering embers. On top of this, many teachers on the
international circuit decided to stay put one more year, rather
than risk being 'last in, first out'. Finally, there were
not many new Advisory type contracts added this year -
governments also put off spending just like you and I did
because of the uncertainty.
Don't get me wrong, international schools were
hiring this year but they were not hiring in anticipation of
growth. Rather they hired cautiously and anticipating a decline
in student roll. Even for January '10 they are only replacing
teachers lost, not growing their number of classes. We have
received lots of requests for oddball combinations this year
("Do you have a teacher who can do A-level ICT and Spanish?"
"Art with Physics?") because they wanted to hire one, not two
teachers whereas in the past they would have hired two knowing
class sizes would grow. Schools have also been incredibly
picky about matching the exact
subject/level/experience/nationality they want. Why? Because
they know they can get what they want in a buyer's market. For
the first time ever, some international schools in the Middle
East laid off (made redundant) teachers.
The reason I mention this is that going
into 2010, I believe we will see two things happening as a
result of 2009.
The first is that schools will initially still
be conservative in their hiring, though not quite so fanatical
about it. Pretty much everyone I have spoken to believes
that 2011 will be 'back to normal' and that 2010 will start
slower and end enthusiastically.
The second is that on top of the recovery next
year, we also know that many teachers who stayed put last year
feel confident to move now. This means that even if schools
don't have extra students, there will be openings at most
schools because staff are leaving. We have been contacted by
even more schools to help with recruitment now for September
than ever before. (great news!) We are also noticing an
increase in the number of new advisory projects in the pipeline
that are now close to getting funded. (more great news!) But I
don't think that each school/group know that everyone else is
experiencing the same thing.....
So looking forward to 2010 I predict
three things.
First - Schools will start off the year being
picky and relatively (but not as bad as 2009) conservative in
their hiring. There will definitely be openings because
teachers are leaving - we know this because they are contacting
us for new posts and are seeing almost 3 times more openings
this year than last!- even if the school student roles do not
grow by leaps and bounds. But I anticipate that schools
will still have remnants of the '2009 mindset' where they want
what they want, they think they can wait and don't want to hear
anything else. They won't be hiring in a panic like they did in
years past. Not at first anyway.
Second - We are already seeing evidence
of this - Schools will be less likely to hire teachers with
families and we cannot expect much in the way of salary
increases from last year. This is to keep costs down and reduce
risk because everyone thinks the recession is over but "it
ain't over till it's really over" so schools will still want to
reduce cost where possible. Easy not to give big increases when
inflation is nil, and easy to not hire teachers with families
if you believe there are plenty of teachers without dependents
out there looking for jobs.
Third - My prediction is that round about
April/May/June there will be a bit of a panic when schools that
have not been proactive in hiring early realise that many of
the available teachers are gone and it's no longer 2009 with
lots of teachers looking for jobs late into the year. So
the schools that haven't been as clued in to the world market
will all of a sudden realise that it's a game of musical
chairs... and they've not got a chair. The late hirers
will become more flexible and adaptable but it won't happen
until the summer for last minute starts.
What does this mean for teachers
looking for posts?
It means that you still need to make sure your
CV/Resumes are well constructed - schools will still be saying
no more than yes until they get panicky late in the season.
Check out our CV tips and CV builder on the Teacher Resources
page of our website.
It means that teachers with families, NQTs and
those looking for lots of money and the perfect job may need to
reset their expectations for early placement. No bidding
wars this year. Controlling cost is still more important in the
Head Teachers' minds than is being potentially left without a
teacher. Teachers with families need to look for Advisory posts
where possible, jobs in the Far East or Europe, or the few
posts that are 'Family Friendly' like the ones for Primary and
English in Brunei. NQTs with families will probably not get
placed this year, or if they do it will be very late in the
season.
It means that teachers should feel secure to
accept a job early in the season without fear of 'first in,
last out'. It will be a year of unexpected (unless you've read
my article!) growth.
It means that single teachers (or teaching couples) with no
dependents and 2+ years of solid experience will be in high
demand from January onwards - we already have schools asking
for you!
Now I'm off to print this and bury it above the
Thames tide line outside the office- to be dug up next year.
Wish me luck
All the best,
Diane Jacoutot
General Manager, Teachanywhere.com